Blog Post 3

1. I am examining the health of ash trees along the Rideau Trail of Marshlands Conservation Area in Kingston, Ontario. I want to explore if the density of ash trees in a plot has a correlation with the incidence of emerald ash borer infection.
2. I chose 5 random locations along the trail and assessed the health of ash trees in plots that are 25 feet by 25 feet. I took an inventory of how many healthy trees there are in a plot compared to ones that show evidence of emerald ash borer infection. Specifically, I examined to see if there are serpentine galleries/trails or cankering in the bark as indicators of infected trees.
   1. For plot A there were 25 ash trees. 3 of these were infected. 12% infection rate
   2. For plot B there were 29 trees. 6 of these were infected. 20.69% infection rate
   3. For plot C there were 20 ash trees. 3 of these were infected. 15% infection rate
   4. For plot D there were 38 trees. 4 of these were infected. 10.53% infection rate
   5. For plot E there were 23 trees. 4 of these were infected. 17.39% infection rate
3. Based on the preliminary findings it does not seem that there is a clear relationship between the density of ash trees in a plot and the rate of infection. As ash density in a plot increases (greater number of trees), I expect that the number of infected trees would increase because there are more resources available for the emerald ash borer to feed on and lay their eggs. Additionally, closer proximity/abundance of trees would facilitate movement of emerald ash borer from one tree to another.
4. The predictor variable for this study is the total number of ash trees in a plot (density; continuous variable) and the response variable is the rate of infection of all the trees (measured by observing indicators of infection which are categorical variables then converted into a numerical continuous variable of infected trees).

To improve the initial study design it would be beneficial to examine other signs that are indicative of emerald ash borer infestation.

Field Journal:

Marshlands Conservation Area, Rideau Trail 1400-1700, 18-02-2019, 2 p.m. 5 p.m. -6°C, a few clouds, snow cover, just North of Lake Ontario; wedged between Little Cataraqui Creek to the West of the trail and Cataraqui Golf and Country Club to the East.

Rideau Trail

Serpentine Galleries

Trees marked with pink chalk to prevent double counting within plots

Measuring tape covering one of the 25-foot edges of the plot.