Organism being studied: Alnus rubra (Red alder)
Gradient: The tree line of a forested ravine, the level top of of a slope before the shoreline, the shoreline itself which consists of boulders, small trees, mixed shrubs and perennials.
Alnus rubra is much more dominant along the shoreline and potentially non-existent along the tree line. This could be due to sunlight, a preference for more well-drained and less rich soil, or maybe Alnus rubra has a tolerance to the salt exposure (from the ocean) and has been able to outcompete other less tolerant species. It may also be that because its the only small tree species along the shore it’s much easier to spot than looking into a thick tree line.
The trees almost seem to have formed a natural spacing between individuals as well with none closer than roughly 20 meters. These specimens all seem quite mature considering the harsh environments in which they grow (taller than 20 feet with stems more than 8” in diameter). Even though these trees are well-spaced and have an abundance of flowering and fruiting bodies, I could not observe any seedlings or juvenile specimens in any part of the gradient.
Hypothesis: The mature Alnus rubra in this region, despite an abundance of flowers and fruit, can no longer reproduce in this location via seed.
Formal prediction: The number of Alnus rubra seedlings and/or juvenile specimens recorded will be very low or non-existent along the shoreline and at the tree line. Due to a change in some environmental factor (or factors) mature specimens have survived but their seed cannot germinate or the seedlings cannot survive.
Potential response variable: Continuous. The number of immature Alnus rubra along the gradient.
Potential predictor variable #1: Continuous. The number of mature, seed-bearing Alnus rubra along the gradient.
Other potential predictor variables:
Categorical- Soil type along gradient (sandy, loam, clay, etc)
Continuous- pH and/or nutrient composition along gradient.